Hi guys! Have you missed me? I’ve been jetting around the country for the last week dreaming up topics for this very blog post. Because I’ve got to start some where… let’s go to Park City, Utah, where I was early last week for the 11th annual Boyd Aviation Forecast Conference.

Mike Boyd really knows how to entertain a crowd. He’s one of the most outspoken (and truly likeable) guys in the industry. He tells it like he sees it; although he and I don’t always wear the same pair of spectacles, if you know what I mean. So here are some of his predictions:

Legacy carriers are getting stronger. Their international reach and fleet diversity allow them to develop niche, profitable revenue streams. Unfortunately, they’ve mostly done it on the backs of labor and Mike thinks these carriers are going to have a tough time attracting great talent (at current wage levels).
LCCs will continue to compete with each other in big markets. He noted the slugfest between Frontier and Southwest in Denver. Go Frontier!!! Boyd thinks these guys are at a disadvantage compared to the leaner big boys. Maybe… maybe not. AirTran has selected some interesting markets lately- Stewart/ Newburg and Daytona Beach. My guess is they’ll do very nicely there.
New orders for aircraft between 90-130 seats. Mothballs for 50 seaters.
Fastest growing small/ medium airports are Sarasota, Portland, ME, Shreveport, Chattanooga and Columbus, Ohio.
Fastest growing hubs are Detroit and Dallas/ Ft. Worth.
Overall enplanements growth through 2008 is 5.1%

Of course, this is just a snippet of the content discussed at the conference. You can find the rest of the story at the Boyd Group website.

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William from France: 10/18/2006 09:47 AM

Helo Kristie!!

Hope you journeyed safely across the open skies of America :) Back in Europe I am still here in school and, wheneer I can, devoring aviation news articles, photos, videos, researches etc...

Yesterday I read on Sir. Randy Baseler's blog (FYI for readers who do not know: Mr. Basseler is Vice President of Marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes in Seattle, WA and I aspire to succeed to him one day lol.. some dream eh?)
Anyway, reading here: http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/2006/10/stretched_reven.html he talks about the introduction of the new Boeing 747-800 both freighter and passenger version... explaining the logic of why this aircraft could find it self a market.

I've always been wondring about Boeing's recent strategy regarding future designs especially since the introduction of the A-3XX now baptized A-380... I remember back in 1997 when the 380 was still a myth, 3 concepts were looked at; The Boeing NLA (New Large Aircraft) which temporarily held the name of 787, and the McDonnell Douglas MD-12. Coincidentally, Mad-Dog was bought out by Boeing this very year so late be the MD-12. But I still have trouble understanding why Boeing decided to opt-out of the NLA program. I mean we all know the skies are too congested. According to a 9 year old research the skies could hold 200,000 airborne movements... And back then we had already 216,000.. Imagine what we are at now!

The extended 787 poses problems because its length makes it unwelcome in many airports which do not have the infrastructures to operate such a big jet... This is why I truly believe the A-380 is a smart choice by Airbus... Despite the grwing problems and delays they are now facing which is tarnishing their brand and media image.

Now regarding airlines... It seems that LCC's and regular airlines are competing fiercely. I do know that in Europe, LCC's have literally overrun the market. When you think about it, to get from one point of Europe to the next, the maximum flight time you are looking at is 3 hours, with the average more being of 60-90 mins... So the need for comfort and extra amenities may not be as predominant as the price, even for businesses...

To cite only a few, Ryanair, Easyjet, BMI Baby, Corsair... there are almost as many LCC's in Europe as there are full service airlines! Even them have their own LCC's. (BMI Baby belongs to British Midland International, member of the Star Alliance). Now I know American companies tried to implement some sort of similar strategy (Ted with United, Tango with Air Canada)...

From my point of view, Frontier has a better advantage over Southwest for the simple reason that their aircraft are newer, more comfortable and definitly in range of price with Southwest. But keeping in mind that the board is never all black or white, Southwest has become very popular and is used by many.

Thank you for the report Kristie. I must say I am a bit jealous. It is my dream to one day get to travel for a living and talk about airlines, airports and more airports! I can only hope for the fulfilment of this wish as I know the economy for aviation is very specialized but I know it is what I want to do and I've known that for 24 years now :) In the meantime, reading of your reports is always refreshing and VERY enjoyabke. I hope to read many more :)

Cheers,

William Sedef :-)